The ruble got the plus value against the weakening Forex dollar in anticipation of the Fed rate cut and amid cautions demand risk due to expectations of a possible conclusion of a US-China trade deal in November. Local support for the ruble remains foreign interest in OFZs, pending another reduction on the CBR key rate this year after the Russian regulator has revised its inflation forecast towards a slowdown.
A limiting fact is uncertainty for the EM segment of the result of the presidential election in Argentina, where the representative of the opposition Peronist party won. By 11.25 Moscow time, the USD/RUB pair was near 63.79, and the ruble was gaining 6 kopecks, while in the morning it had fallen to 63.96.
Against the euro, it remains in the red, losing 4 kopeks (70.76), thereby reflecting the current strengthening of the single currency against the dollar at forex. The probability of a decrease in the Fed rate on Wednesday by 25 bp is now estimated at 90% and the probability of a decrease of the CBR key rate in December at 25 bp is 57%. EM currencies have shown, since the beginning of the day, mainly strengthening against the US dollar, but Brent oil went negative after reaching a new October high of $62.16, and now a barrel is valued at $61.78 (-0.4%).