The pair EUR / USD today is consolidating in a narrow range just below 1.1200. After rising to weekly highs near 1.1250, the pair previously correctively fell below 1.1200 but remains above the support level of 1.1180. Against the background of some lull in the trade war between the USA and China, the political focus of Italy turned, and in particular the split in the coalition government, which increased the likelihood of early elections. If the elections take place, the victory may well go to the party of the Northern League Matteo Salvini.
Germany today releases its June trade balance figures, reflecting a narrowing surplus of up to € 16.8 billion. The current account surplus unadjusted to the time of year for the same period amounted to € 20.6 billion. Further, the focus of players will be US producer prices for July.
The growth of the single European currency will remain limited as the ECB prepares to introduce new policy easing measures, potentially including a cut in interest rates, the resumption of QE, as well as the introduction of a multi-level system of deposit rates in September. Earlier, the Central Bank has already changed the rhetoric: now it believes that rates will remain at "current level or lower", at least until mid-2020. The main factors of the pessimistic mood of the ECB and the weakening euro are the worsening forecast for the Eurozone economy and the lack of inflation in the region.
Resistance is noted at 1.1249 (monthly maximum on August 6), 1.1282 (maximum on July 9), and 1.1295 (200-day SMA). Support takes place on 1.1154 (10-day SMA), 1.1101 (minimum July 25), and 1.1026 (minimum August 1 and 2019).